China’s move to sell off its US Treasurys is turning heads. If you’ve been tracking the international finance news, you’ll notice a significant shift in Beijing’s strategy over recent months. Contrary to popular belief, this isn’t a flex of financial muscle but rather a reflection of internal economic concerns.
By the close of June, China’s holdings in US Treasurys dipped to a staggering 14-year low, resting at $835 billion. This comes as China grapples with an economic rebound that seems to be losing its post-COVID steam.
The Yuan’s Tricky Balancing Act
One significant reason behind China’s selling spree could be its attempt to stabilize the yuan, which has been experiencing a steady dip against the dollar. Historically, China has maintained a softer yuan to bolster exports by snapping up US bonds. This tactic, highlighted by Carson Group’s global macro strategist, Sonu Varghese, is seeing a twist.
In a surprising turn of events, the yuan has perhaps become too soft for Beijing’s liking. Just earlier in 2022, the exchange rate was hovering around 6.3 yuan for a dollar. Fast forward to now, and that rate has weakened to 7.28 yuan. This decline, as many analysts argue, mirrors China’s weakening economic vitality, a development that’s exerting added pressure on its currency.
Varghese paints a picture: “Capital is now on the move out of China, driven by a slackening growth rate. This exodus exerts an unwanted downward thrust on the yuan.”
Peeling Back the Layers of China’s Economy
Let’s break it down further. China is currently wrestling with soaring youth unemployment rates that have rocketed past 20%. Couple that with creeping deflation and consider this: for every $9 invested, China now generates only $1 of GDP growth. A stark contrast to the $5 required merely a decade ago.
Furthermore, China’s trading equation with the US is undergoing a transformation. The US has been slashing its Chinese imports, shifting its focus to other emerging markets like Vietnam, the Philippines, and India.
Varghese decodes China’s recent drawdown of its Treasury cache as a dollar sale to buy more yuan. In his words, it underscores “China’s economic fragility rather than its strength.”
A critical takeaway? Varghese points out the interdependence of these two global giants. “China, with its investment and export-driven model, leans heavily on external demand strength. In contrast, the US thrives on consumption, a primarily internally fueled demand.” The implication? Despite the optics, China might be more reliant on the US than vice versa.
In Conclusion
Entrepreneurs and investors keeping an eye on international finance trends would do well to note the subtleties behind China’s recent moves. It serves as a timely reminder: in the world of global finance, not everything is as it first appears.