Market watchers, strap yourselves in. According to a recent note from investment research firm Fundstrat, Bitcoin could be heading on an astonishing 521% journey to reach $180,000 before the cryptocurrency’s programmed halving event in April 2024.
Currently, Bitcoin’s daily demand and mining rewards are evenly matched at approximately $25 million each. However, the scales could tip dramatically if a Bitcoin ETF enters the scene. Fundstrat suggests that a Bitcoin ETF could spark an extra $100 million in daily demand for the digital coin.
This surge in demand, combined with the Bitcoin halving event in 2024 (which will cut daily mining rewards to $12 million), means Bitcoin’s price will have to make a significant leap to keep supply and demand in balance.
According to Fundstrat, a Bitcoin ETF launch could boost daily demand to $125 million, while supply sits at a mere $25 million. To restore equilibrium, Bitcoin’s price would need to skyrocket. Fundstrat’s calculations point to a new equilibrium price of between $140,000 and $180,000 before the April 2024 halving.
The halving (or “halvening”) event, which limits Bitcoin supply by halving miner rewards, has traditionally been a bullish event for Bitcoin, often leading to substantial price hikes.
Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, added more detail to this prediction, suggesting that the Bitcoin network could reasonably see a multiplier effect in the range of 4.0x to 5.0x. This multiplier means that $1 of demand could trigger a $4 to $5 increase in market cap.
As Farrell sees it, there’s a 75% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF getting approved in the near future. Investment giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are eagerly awaiting the SEC’s verdict on their ETF applications. Such an ETF could attract a fresh wave of investors and create more demand for Bitcoin, Farrell noted.
Should a Bitcoin ETF get the green light, particularly from BlackRock, it could be one of the largest ETF launches in history, potentially even outperforming the Invesco QQQ ETF in terms of first-year inflows. That ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, pulled in $36 billion in its debut year after launching in March 1999.
With enough momentum, Bitcoin ETFs could eventually surpass the nearly $230 billion precious metals ETF market, Fundstrat predicts. “Bitcoin ETF could eventually become a >$300 billion category,” the firm said, and this surge in demand could be just the boost needed to propel Bitcoin’s price to triple digits.
But Fundstrat isn’t alone in its bullish Bitcoin forecast. Earlier this month, Standard Chartered projected that a positive feedback loop could push the cryptocurrency past the $120,000 mark as early as next year.