The drums of economic concern are growing louder as former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers delivers a stark warning about the state of US deficits. Though once relatively indifferent towards deficits, Summers seems to have significantly pivoted in his views.
During a recent interview with the Atlantic, he stated, “I am not a natural-born deficit worrywart” — but that sentiment appears to be undergoing a transformation. “While long-term forecasts will always be shrouded in uncertainty,” Summers pointed out, “it’s likely that we’re currently on a completely unsustainable path.”
In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Summers was among the key players in the Obama administration, championing federal deficit spending as a means to rejuvenate the economy and fend off long-term stagnation.
The era was marked by the clamor of deficit hawks, but their warnings fell on deaf ears as the deficit widened during the Trump administration. This was a result of Republicans cutting taxes without proportionately reducing spending, with expenditures ballooning further due to COVID-related stimuli.
Adding to the fiscal complexity, entitlement spending is on the rise as the population ages. The Atlantic reports that expenditures on Social Security and Medicare now outstrip their dedicated revenue streams by a whopping $500 billion annually.
As these deficits contribute to the mounting US debt pile, the cost of servicing these obligations is spiraling upwards, fueled by rising interest rates. For Summers, the crux of the issue lies in the fact that there’s no justification for the government to continue running these massive deficits, especially when the economy is on a healthy growth trajectory.
He went on to underscore that deficits are also fanning the flames of inflation, consequently pressuring the Federal Reserve into continually ramping up its interest rates. “I don’t believe we’ve ever faced a time when the trajectory looked as menacing as it does now,” Summers lamented, pointing to the current high rates.
According to Summers, the consequences of this could range from risking stagflation and waning investor interest in American assets to increased borrowing, which subsequently shrinks investment relative to consumption.
Summers concluded with a warning that an unsustainable focus on the present threatens the future, whether it’s about funding initiatives like Head Start, investing in venture capital, maintaining a well-trained and sufficiently large military, or leading in crucial areas like AI and biomedicine. The undercurrent of his message? It’s time to steer away from this dangerous precipice and reassess our economic trajectory.