We’re all familiar with the old saying, “When giants fight, it’s the grass that suffers.” As the economic giants of the U.S. and China wrestle for global supremacy, it’s the everyday consumers who might feel the squeeze.

The ongoing economic chess match between the U.S. and China is reshaping global trade dynamics. With political tensions brewing and competition intensifying in the tech and semiconductor sectors, Chinese imports to the U.S. have dwindled to a 20-year low. The grand game doesn’t just revolve around low prices anymore. National security, policy decisions, and supply chain resiliency are all key players in today’s world of trade.

Recent data shows that Mexico has leapfrogged China to become the U.S.’s top trading partner. According to the Census Bureau, bilateral trade between the U.S. and Mexico touched $263 billion in the first four months of the year, while imports from China during the same period plummeted by 25%, dropping from $175 billion to $130 billion.

Here’s an interesting twist, though. Despite the falling imports, U.S. exports to China edged up slightly from $48.8 billion to $49.3 billion.

So, what does this shift mean for American consumers and entrepreneurs? Well, as U.S. firms begin to pivot away from China’s affordable production and supply chains, they’re likely to face increased costs. These additional costs could then trickle down to everyday consumers. If the trend continues, we might see a future where the U.S. and China rely less on each other, potentially driving up prices of goods that were previously sourced from China.

When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, it opened the gates for the nation to establish itself as a leading trade and manufacturing hub. The other side of the coin, however, saw accusations of China flooding the global market with inexpensive exports while restricting foreign access to its own market.

Mexico’s ascent in the U.S. trade rankings is a boon for the nation, enabling it to climb on the world stage. However, the shift could come with a bitter aftertaste for American consumers, given that very few countries can compete with China’s cost efficiency.

Increased trade with Mexico, while offering advantages for Mexican businesses, has had a mixed impact on U.S. producers and consumers. As friction with China contributes to Mexico’s rise, it could lead to higher input and purchase prices for U.S. firms and consumers.

In essence, the tides of Sino-American trade are shifting, and while it’s an intriguing development for entrepreneurs and investors, consumers might be looking at a larger bill at the end of the day. Time will tell how these economic giants adapt and who will be left holding the check.