Economists have a broad range of metrics they monitor to get a pulse on the health of the economy: housing trends, copper prices for a glimpse into manufacturing, and even the seemingly mundane cardboard box sales. However, there’s a less-known gauge that can offer an illuminating view – Recreational Vehicle (RV) sales.

For the uninitiated, RV sales might seem like a peculiar economic barometer. However, they offer a rich insight into consumer confidence, discretionary income, and interest rate sensitivity. When consumers are optimistic about the economy and their personal financial situations, RV sales typically spike. Conversely, a decline in RV sales can signal tightening financial conditions or reduced consumer confidence.

RV sales have even been lauded as superior recession predictors by some in the field, such as Michael Hicks, a professor of economics at Indiana’s Ball State University.

Unfortunately, the latest data points may be concerning. According to the RV Industry Association, RV sales have dipped by over 50% this year. It’s a steep drop, but it’s crucial to consider the context. Like countless other industries, the RV market was significantly affected by the pandemic, and the plummeting sales might be a return to normalcy following the COVID-induced buying frenzy.

Our current economic landscape is nothing if not complex. The Federal Reserve has implemented rate hikes, the job market is at its hottest since the 1960s, and inflation remains persistently high. Simultaneously, despite the low unemployment rate typically being a positive economic sign, it might be fueling the inflationary fire.

Forecasting in this environment is like trying to predict the weather in a hurricane. Wall Street is divided on the chances of an impending recession. Yet, corporations have been resilient, delivering more upbeat earnings results than anticipated amid the whirlwind of economic activity.

There’s no recession in sight for now, even with the Fed’s adjustments. However, it may be looming just around the corner. And if that’s the case, it might be the less-celebrated indicators like RV sales, egg consumption, and cardboard box movement that give us the early warning.

Entrepreneurs and investors should keep an eye on these often-overlooked indicators to anticipate upcoming market movements. Despite their under-the-radar status, they may provide valuable insights to navigate the intricacies of the current economic climate. So, whether you’re on Wall Street or Main Street, maybe it’s time to pay a little more attention to the humble RV.