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Navigating the Consumer Confidence Conundrum: Walmart and April’s Retail Sales Insights

As we head into the summer months, Wall Street is bracing for a slew of earnings reports and data releases that could shed light on the resilience of the U.S. consumer in the face of rising jobless claims and a decelerating domestic economy.

This week, the Commerce Department is set to reveal April’s retail sales data. Analysts are predicting a moderate rebound in consumer spending from March, with the headline gain of 0.7% expected to be fueled mainly by increased spending on gasoline.

When we strip away sales from gas stations, auto dealers, building materials and office supply stores, and tobacco receipts, we’re left with the ‘control group’ of retail sales. This offers a more reliable measure of consumer strength and is anticipated to rise by 0.3%, according to Street forecasts, after a -0.3% decline in March.

However, this predicted rebound might not fully capture the caution seen in retail hiring. The retail sector led the layoffs in April, with almost 15,000 job cuts, a staggering 270% increase from the same period last year. This brings the year-to-date total to approximately 36,115, as per Challenger, Gray & Christmas data.

Andrew Challenger, the group’s senior vice president, noted, “Retailers and Consumer Goods Manufacturers are gearing up for a tightening in consumer spending, especially with the Fed’s hike to interest rates in a bid to control inflation.”

These apprehensions were echoed in the University of Michigan’s benchmark consumer sentiment index, which dropped more than six points in April to 57.7 points, with long-term inflation expectations rising by 20 basis points to 3.2%.

In parallel, Bank of America’s data indicates a 1.2% decline in April spending on debit and credit cards, the first year-on-year drop since February 2021. This trend aligns with “positive but weak GDP growth in 2Q 2023 and a mild recession thereafter.”

Several key retail players reporting earnings this week should provide further insight into consumer spending trends and their implications for U.S. growth prospects.

Home Depot will kick off the week’s earnings reports on Tuesday. Analysts anticipate earnings per share of $3.80, a roughly 7% drop from last year, on relatively flat sales of about $38.3 billion. The company has reiterated its expectation of a ‘mid single digit’ earnings decline for the full fiscal year, with comparable sales mirroring 2022 levels, as home improvement spending slows.

Target will follow Home Depot with its first quarter earnings on Wednesday. Investors will be keenly watching the company’s profit margins following a disappointing 2023 outlook announced earlier this year. With adjusted earnings expected to be around $1.77 per share on revenues of $25.34 billion, the focus will be on improving margins as inventory continues to decrease.

Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, will round out the major retail earnings announcements on Thursday. With grocery sales now accounting for over half of its total, the company has managed to improve same-store sales significantly from last year. However, this shift has also squeezed profit margins. Despite this, Walmart is projected to see earnings rise to $1.30 per share as revenues jump 5% to $148.54 billion.

In addition to gauging the pulse of the U.S. consumer, the earnings updates from these three retail giants could offer a much-needed diversification to a tech-led stock market that’s been struggling to break free from its recent trading range, according to Quincy Krosby, LPP’s chief global strategist.

Krosby added, “This week’s calendar could provide a chance for the market to

expand its direction with a broad spectrum of economic releases…with Walmart and Target’s earnings shedding light on the strength of the all-important US consumer.”

Stay tuned, entrepreneurs and investors. This week promises to provide vital insights into the ever-evolving consumer landscape, offering potential opportunities for those who can read the signs and respond accordingly.

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