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HomeEconomyUS Default Risks Looming: Bond Market's Warning Signal for Debt Ceiling Crisis

US Default Risks Looming: Bond Market’s Warning Signal for Debt Ceiling Crisis

The bond market recently raised concerns over the risk of a US default, as the deadline to reach a debt ceiling deal may arrive sooner than expected. This development could have significant implications for entrepreneurs and investors alike.

On Monday, the US auctioned $57 billion in three-month Treasury bills, set to mature around the time when the government could potentially run out of funds. These bills saw a yield of 5.1%, the highest since January 2001. This follows a similar auction of three-month bills that also experienced weak demand.

Despite these warning signs, Congress and the White House have not yet resolved the debt ceiling crisis. The government is projected to exhaust its funds by July. However, lawmakers may need to address the issue earlier than anticipated, possibly as soon as May, after accounting for April tax receipts.

In a note released on Monday, JPMorgan stated, “As asset prices fell across the board in 2022, tax receipts are expected to be weak, so it is reasonable to expect this may force Congress to address this sooner than initially thought. And the combination of more restrictive rates and debt ceiling stress could be cataclysmic.”

Republican Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy visited the New York Stock Exchange on Monday to discuss the matter. He mentioned that a vote on the debt ceiling would take place within weeks but would depend on spending cuts. McCarthy also urged Wall Street traders to push the Biden administration, which has maintained that the debt ceiling should not be used as political leverage.

McCarthy said, “If you agree, don’t sit back — join us. Join us in demanding a reasonable negotiation, a responsible debt ceiling, an agreement that brings spending under control.”

Failing to raise the debt ceiling before funds are depleted could result in disastrous consequences. A potential default could cause markets to crash and send the economy into a downward spiral. Entrepreneurs and investors should monitor this situation closely, as the outcome may significantly impact the financial landscape.

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