2023 was a landmark year for the U.S. oil industry, witnessing a production surge that took the global energy markets by storm. However, experts caution that we shouldn’t hold our breath for a repeat performance in 2024. The culprit? A significant uptick in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) within the oil and gas exploration sector.

Already, the first quarter of 2024 has seen a staggering $55 billion in merger deals, following a record-breaking $190 billion in M&A activity in 2023, as reported by Enverus. This shift towards consolidation is expected to drastically alter the landscape of U.S. oil production, moving away from the explosive growth driven by private companies that characterized last year’s boom.

Private companies like Endeavor Energy Resources and CrownRock have been at the forefront of fueling the Permian Basin’s crude production growth. However, the recent trend of larger public corporations acquiring these private entities signals a potential slowdown in U.S. oil output. High-profile acquisitions, such as ExxonMobil’s purchase of Pioneer and Chevron’s acquisition of Hess, indicate a pivot towards consolidation and capital discipline, prioritizing shareholder returns over production volume.

This shift is evident in the strategic moves of companies like Diamondback and Occidental, who have made significant acquisitions, thereby controlling substantial portions of the Permian Basin’s oil inventory. Public firms operate under different financial imperatives than their private counterparts, focusing on cost reduction, selective drilling, and enhancing shareholder value rather than aggressively expanding production.

Morningstar analysts highlight the concept of “capital discipline” as a guiding principle for many large oil companies, emphasizing efficient capital allocation over maximizing output. For instance, Diamondback’s commitment to maintaining production levels with reduced capital expenditure underscores a broader industry trend toward maximizing efficiency and shareholder value.

The repercussions of this shift are profound, with analysts from Rapidan Energy projecting a deceleration in U.S. oil production growth from 1 million barrels per day in 2023 to just 300,000 barrels per day in 2024. The move towards consolidation and capital discipline marks a significant departure from the previous strategy of rapid expansion, signaling a new era for the U.S. oil industry.

Moreover, the wave of M&A activity has caught the attention of lawmakers, with Democrats in Congress calling for the FTC to scrutinize the sector’s consolidation trends. As the industry navigates these changes, the focus on sustainable growth and shareholder value will likely redefine the dynamics of U.S. oil production in the years to come.